Paul Lachine

Конец роста населения

НЬЮ-ДЕЛИ. По данным Отдела народонаселения ООН 31 октября текущего года население Земли достигло семи миллиардов человек. Как и всегда, когда мы приближаемся к подобной вехе, данное событие привело к проведению множества конференций, семинаров и написанию множества учёных статей, в том числе в стиле обычных мрачных мальтузианских прогнозов. Кроме того, ООН прогнозирует рост мирового населения до 9,3 миллиардов человек к 2050 г. и превышение рубежа в 10 миллиардов человек к концу этого века.

Однако при подобных прогнозах неверно истолковывается существующая демографическая динамика. В будущем нас ожидает не чрезмерно высокий, а чрезмерно низкий рост населения.

Большинство стран провели в прошлом году национальную перепись населения, и данные говорят о том, что коэффициент рождаемости в большинстве из них резко снижается. Уровень рождаемости в развитых странах уже некоторое время является низким, но теперь он стремительно падает и в большинстве развивающихся стран. Китайцы, русские и бразильцы уже не воспроизводят сами себя, а индийцы теперь заводят меньше детей. Вообще, мировой уровень рождаемости снизится до уровня воспроизводства чуть более чем за десятилетие. Население может продолжать расти до середины века благодаря увеличению продолжительности жизни, но, говоря в репродуктивном смысле, наш биологический вид больше не может расширяться.

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