金融辉煌时代的终结?by Kenneth Rogoff

直到一年之前,金融的吹鼓手们似乎还振振有词。通过分散风险,高科技金融帮助了各经济体更快地发展。宏观经济学家们欢呼全球经济周期“大温和时代”的到来,因为萧条似乎发生得更少,且程度也更温和。而且,当然金融界首先赚到了钱,在全球范围内催生了一大群百万富翁甚至是亿万富翁。

政府也充当了啦啦队的角色。英语国家的总统和总理们(当然更不用说那些顶尖的中央银行的头们)以拥有先进的被全世界的羡慕的金融系统为傲。而当法国和德国的领袖警告新金融不断蔓延的并不受监管的触角正对全球经济造成风险时,他们被嘲笑为痛苦的失败者。小国家诸如冰岛也决定不甘寂寞,他们将银行私有化并建立了自己的金融中心。如果成不了硅谷,那为什么不弄个小型的华尔街呢?

可现在,冰岛的银行借债已经数倍于该国的国民生产总值,其债务数目远远不是这个小国的国民所能消化得了的,它们正处于焦头烂额的麻烦之中。 甚至连保守的瑞士也经不起高科技金融以及其赚钱效应前景的诱惑。如今,瑞士最大的两家银行所欠的债务,超过该国总收入的七倍。 

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