Barrie Maguire

El fin del superávit chino

CAMBRIDGE – El superávit en cuenta corriente de China –la combinación de su superávit comercial y sus ingresos netos por inversiones extranjeras- es el más grande del mundo. Con un superávit comercial de 190,000 millones de dólares y los ingresos procedentes de su cartera de activos en el exterior que son de casi 3 billones de dólares, el superávit externo de ese país asciende los 316,000 millones de dólares, o el 6.1% del PIB anual.

Dado que el superávit en cuenta corriente se denomina en moneda extranjera, China debe usar estos fondos para invertir en el exterior, principalmente mediante la compra de bonos gubernamentales emitidos por los Estados Unidos y por países europeos. Como resultado, las tasas de interés en esos países son más bajas de lo que serían de otra forma.

Todo ello puede estar a punto de cambiar. Las políticas que China adoptará como parte de su nuevo plan quinquenal reducirán su superávit comercial y en cuenta corriente. Es posible que antes de que termine la década, el superávit en cuenta corriente de China se convierta en déficit a medida que el país importe más de lo que exporte y gaste sus ingresos de las inversiones extranjeras en importaciones y no en títulos extranjeros. Si eso sucede, China dejará de ser un comprador neto de bonos de los Estados Unidos y de otros bonos extranjeros, lo que presionará a la alza las tasas de interés en esos países.

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