Barrie Maguire

Das Ende von Chinas Handelsüberschuss

CAMBRIDGE, MASS.: Chinas aktueller Leistungsbilanzüberschuss – die Kombination seines Handelsüberschusses und seiner Nettoeinnahmen aus Auslandsbeteiligungen – ist der höchste weltweit. Mit einem Handelsüberschuss von 190 Milliarden Dollar und den Einkünften aus seinem beinahe drei Billiarden schweren Portfolio an Auslandsinvestitionen beläuft sich Chinas Leistungsbilanzüberschuss derzeit auf 316 Milliarden Dollar, oder 6,1% seines jährlichen Bruttoinlandsproduktes.

Da der Leistungsbilanzüberschuss in ausländischer Währung vorliegt, muss China diese Gelder im Ausland investieren, in erster Linie, indem es von den USA und den europäischen Ländern ausgegebene Anleihen erwirbt. Infolgedessen sind die Zinsen in diesen Ländern niedriger, als das sonst der Fall wäre.

Dies könnte sich nun ändern. Die Politik, die China im Rahmen seines neuen Fünfjahresplans einführen wird, wird zu einer Senkung seiner Handels- und Leistungsbilanzüberschüsse führen. Es ist möglich, dass sich Chinas Leistungsbilanzüberschuss bis zum Ende des Jahrzehnts in ein Defizit verkehrt, wenn nämlich das Land mehr importiert als exportiert und seine Einnahmen aus Auslandsinvestitionen statt für ausländische Wertpapiere für Importe ausgibt. In diesem Fall wäre China kein Nettokäufer von US- und anderen ausländischen Anleihen mehr, was die Zinsen in diesen Ländern nach oben drücken würde.

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