Barrie Maguire

Chine : changement de cap économique

CAMBRIDGE – La Chine détient le record mondial en matière d'excédent des comptes courants. Il atteint 316 milliards de dollars (son excédent commercial de 190 milliards plus les revenus nets tirés des presque 3000 milliards d'investissements étrangers), soit 6,1% de son PIB annuel.

Cet excédent étant constitué de devises étrangères, la Chine l'utilise pour investir à l'étranger, achetant en priorité des obligations d'Etat américaines et européennes, ce qui contribue à maintenir à des niveaux bas les taux d'intérêt américains et européens.

Tout cela pourrait changer prochainement. Le nouveau plan quinquennal de la Chine prévoit la réduction de son excédent commercial et de son excédent des comptes courants. Ce dernier pourrait se transformer en déficit avant la fin de la décennie, quand la Chine importera plus qu'elle n'exportera et utilisera les investissements étrangers pour importer plutôt que pour acheter des titres étrangers. Selon ce scénario, la Chine ne sera plus un acheteur net d'obligations étrangères (en particulier américaines), ce qui poussera à la hausse les taux d'intérêt des pays concernés.

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