Margaret Scott

Le blues du marché obligataire américain

PÉKIN – Le marché des bons du Trésor américain constitue l’un des marchés de la dette les plus actifs de la planète, fournissant aux investisseurs un stock de valeur sécurisé, de même qu’un flux de revenus fiable, tout en permettant de réduire les coûts de service de la dette pour le gouvernement américain. Or, selon le Département du Trésor américain, les investisseurs étrangers ont vendu pour un montant record de 54,5 milliards $ de dette américaine à long terme au cours du mois d’avril, la Chine ayant taillé dans ses avoirs pour 5,4 milliards $. Cet abandon de la dette publique américaine de la part des investisseurs étrangers semble ainsi annonciatrice de la fin d’une période de financement bon marché pour les États-Unis.

À l’heure actuelle, le gouvernement américain détient environ 40% de sa dette à travers la Réserve fédérale et autres agences gouvernementales telles que le Fonds d’affectation spéciale de la sécurité sociale, les investisseurs américains et étrangers en possédant chacun de leur côté 30%. Les économies émergentes – dont la plupart recourent à d’importants excédents commerciaux pour stimuler la croissance du PIB et compléter leurs réserves de change grâce aux entrées de capitaux en résultant – constituent les principaux acheteurs de dette américaine.

Au cours des dix dernières années, les réserves de change de ces États ont explosé en passant de 750 milliards $ à 6 300 milliards $ – soit plus de 50% du total mondial – fournissant ainsi une source de financement colossale, qui a effectivement supprimé les coûts de l’emprunt américain à long terme. Le rendement sur les obligations américaines à dix ans ayant en moyenne chaque année chuté de 45% entre 2000 et 2012, l’Amérique a pu financer sa dette selon des conditions exceptionnellement favorables.

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