历史(经济)的结束?

巴黎——一些学术著作,由于至少部分难以言表的原因,在学术史上留下了难以磨灭的印记。约翰·梅纳尔·凯恩斯(John Maynard Keynes)的论文《我们子孙后代可能的经济前景》便属于这种情况。

这篇论文的重要性不在于凯恩斯是如何回答他所提出的问题的,而在于这些问题的性质本身。资本主义体系自身所发挥的作用能否结束物质的稀缺——进而将资本主义本身推向终点?在这样一个时代,人们可能会以怎样的方式生活?

凯恩斯开始用复利运算法以及复利长期积累后的惊人效果审视这些问题。以2%的增长率来计算,任何数据,包括国内生产总值,在一个世纪的时间内都将翻7.5倍。那么物质稀缺的问题——也就是所有经济学的基础——是否也能随着这一增长而得到解决呢?

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