Mundo emergente en ascenso

LONDRES – Ahora que las cuestiones de liderazgo en Estados Unidos y China se han dirimido, finalmente podemos elaborar las perspectivas económicas para 2013 sabiendo quién moverá la palanca en materia de políticas en las dos principales economías del mundo. ¿Qué harán -y, quizá más importante, qué les harán a ellos las fuerzas económicas?

Para empezar, Estados Unidos enfrentará desafíos recurrentes con el "abismo fiscal" hasta que los mercados financieros presionen a los responsables de las políticas para que implementen una reducción más radical del déficit. Pero, a pesar de esto y de las decepciones que se pueden generar en materia de crecimiento, el año 2013 será un año más fuerte para la economía global de lo que muchos esperan.

En 2011, China aportó al mundo 1,3 billones de dólares en PBI adicional, algo así como crear otra Grecia cada 12 semanas y media, o casi otra España todos los años. Juntos, los cuatro países que conforman el bloque BRIC (Brasil, Rusia, India y China) aportaron aproximadamente 2,2 billones de dólares en 2012, el equivalente a otra Italia cada año. (A pesar de sus problemas, Italia sigue siendo la octava economía más grande del mundo, y lo seguirá siendo durante por lo menos un par de años, hasta que Rusia e India puedan superarla).

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