L’ascension du monde émergeant

LONDRES – Maintenant que les questions de leadership aux Etats-Unis et en Chine sont réglées, et sachant désormais qui tiendra les reines de l’action politique dans les deux plus importantes économies du monde, nous pouvons enfin nous pencher sur les perspectives économiques pour 2013. Donc, que feront-elles – et peut-être plus important, quel sera sur elles l’effet des forces économiques ?

Pour commencer, les Etats-Unis vont être confrontés aux défis récurrents de la « falaise budgétaire » jusqu’à ce que les marchés financiers imposent des pressions sur les dirigeants afin qu’ils réduisent plus radicalement les déficits. Mais malgré cela, et les déceptions associées liées à la croissance, 2013 sera une meilleure année pour l’économie globale que beaucoup ne le prévoient.

En 2011, la China a rapporté 1,3 billions de dollars en PIB supplémentaire au monde, l’équivalent de la création d’une autre Grèce toutes les 12 semaines et demi, ou près d’une nouvelle Espagne chaque année. Les quatre pays des BRIC (Brésil, Russie, Inde, et Chine) ont ensemble contribué environ 2,2 billions de dollars en 2012, l’équivalant d’une autre Italie chaque année. (En dépit de ses problèmes, l’Italie reste la huitième économie mondiale, et le restera encore deux ans, jusqu’à ce qu’elle soit dépassée par la Russie, ou même l’Inde.)

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