新兴世界的崛起

发自伦敦——随着美中两国领导人人选尘埃落定,在知晓谁将掌控全球前两大经济体的政策杠杆之后,我们终于可以开始勾勒出2013年的经济前景。那么,他们会有何作为——或者更重要的是,经济力量会对他们产生什何种影响?

首先,美国将面临着“财政悬崖”所带来的反复挑战,直至金融市场迫使决策者实施更激进的削减赤字政策。尽管存在这一挑战以及随之而来令人失望的增长幅度,但对全球经济来说2013年将会是一个超出许多人预期的强劲增长年。

2011年,中国为世界贡献了1.3万亿美元的GDP增长,相当于每12周半创造出一个希腊,或是每年创造出一个西班牙。金砖四国(巴西、俄罗斯、印度及中国)合共在2012年贡献了约2.2万亿美元,相当于一年一个意大利。(虽然本身存在问题,但意大利依然是世界第八大经济体,至少在未来几年被俄罗斯或印度赶超之前还是如此。)

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