埃及的考验

马德里—在埃及人民翘首期待总统大选结果的同时,2011年1月推翻穆巴拉克的年轻人和世俗自由派发出了悲观的声音。解放广场起义时的“一切皆有可能”的感觉已经不复存在,眼下,当初的示威者所深深反对的两位候选人——穆斯林兄弟会的穆尔西以及旧制度(和现任军政府)大总管莎菲克——正准备在第二轮大选中决一死战。

自阿拉伯之春肇始以来,有三大基本因素推动着埃及前进——军队、清真寺以及解放广场上的群众,他们力量和利益各不相同。如今,它们早已分道扬镳。16个月前在解放广场起事的群众沉默了,被寄予厚望的军政府向文治民主政府的过渡也蒙上了阴影。

穆巴拉克倒台后,武装部队最高委员会(SCAF)执掌了权力。SCAF的领导人是坦塔维(Mohamed Hussein Tantawi)陆军元帅,此人在穆巴拉克时代担任国防部长20年。SCAF掌权后,一直在破坏民主转型脆弱的成果。在总统大选前一周,SCAF的盟友宪法法院解散了新近选出的议会,宣称投票过程不合法。此外,在预见到穆尔西将在大选中胜出后,SCAF掌握了所有立法权,极大地限制总统权力,把持权力机关任命新宪法起草委员会成员,夺取埃及预算控制权,还控制着国内和对外安全事务的独家垄断权。

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