Paul Lachine

De risico's van de onrust in het Midden-Oosten

MADRID – De instabiliteit blijft zich verspreiden in het Midden-Oosten. De militaire coup in Egypte is de jongste episode die politieke trillingen in de regio veroorzaakt. Met zijn bevolking van 85 miljoen zielen en strategisch cruciale locatie is Egypte het belangrijkste land aan de zuidkust van de Middellandse Zee. Het voortzetten van het democratiseringsproces dat hier in 2011 is begonnen is urgent.

De islamistische regering van de Moslimbroederschap onder leiding van Mohammed Morsi heeft blijk gegeven van haar onvermogen om een alomvattende overgang naar democratische verhoudingen te bewerkstelligen. Maar de oplossing die wordt geboden door het Egyptische leger is verre van ideaal. Coups hebben de neiging de problemen te verscherpen in plaats van op te lossen, en deze coup is geen uitzondering.

Het eerste gevolg is dat de Egyptische samenleving verdeelder is dan ooit over de vraag van de politieke legitimiteit. De aanhangers van Morsi verwijzen naar de legitimiteit van zijn overwinning bij de democratische verkiezingen van een jaar geleden – en naar de onrechtmatigheid van de coup van het leger en de gevangenhouding van de afgezette president – terwijl zijn tegenstanders de legitimiteit verdedigen van de enorme betogingen die in het hele land tegen hem zijn gehouden.

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