L'économie et la présidence

CAMBRIDGE - Il ne reste plus que six mois avant l'élection présidentielle des États-Unis. Si l'on se fie à l'Histoire, les résultats dépendront de manière significative du rendement économique d'ici le 6 novembre et de la perception  par les Américains de leur avenir économique sous les deux candidats.

A l'heure actuelle, l'économie des États-Unis claudique avec une croissance lente et un chômage élevé. Le rendement s'est développé l'année dernière d'à peine 1,5% et le PIB réel par habitant est maintenant inférieur à ce qu'il était avant que le début du ralentissement économique de fin 2007. Bien que la croissance annuelle du PIB ait été de 3% au quatrième trimestre 2011, plus de la moitié de ce pourcentage a reflété l'accumulation de stocks. Les ventes finales aux ménages, aux entreprises et aux acheteurs étrangers ont augmenté seulement à un taux annuel de 1,1%, encore plus lentement qu'au début de l'année. Et l'évaluation préliminaire de croissance annuelle du PIB au premier trimestre 2012 était décevante à 2,2%, avec seulement une augmentation de 1,6% des ventes finales.

Le marché du travail a été lui aussi décevant. Le taux de chômage de mars de 8,2% était presque trois points au-dessus de ce que la plupart des économistes considèrent comme un taux de longue durée souhaitable et durable. Bien que le taux ait été en baisse de 9% il y a un an, environ la moitié du changement a reflété une augmentation du nombre de personnes qui ont cessé de rechercher du travail, plutôt qu'une augmentation de création d'emplois et du taux d'emploi.

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