Les impératifs économiques du Printemps arabe

WASHINGTON, DC/ISTANBUL – Près d’une année s’est écoulée depuis que la révolution tunisienne et les manifestations de la place Tahrir au Caire ont renversé des régimes autoritaires sclérosés, et déclenché des tempêtes encore plus violentes – qui font toujours rage – dans le reste du monde arabe. Personne ne saurait prévoir avec certitude où ces événements entraîneront finalement les peuples et les nations arabes. Une chose ne fait cependant aucun doute : il n’est plus question de faire marche arrière. De nouvelles structures et mouvements sociaux et politiques sont en train d’émerger, le pouvoir se déplace, et l’espoir existe de voir les processus démocratiques se renforcer et se répandre dans le monde arabe en 2012.

Les événements du monde arabe en 2011 rappellent d’autres transitions de grande ampleur, comme celle qu’a connue l’Europe de l’Est après la chute du mur de Berlin en 1989. Un certain nombre de différences se font bien évidemment sentir, mais la nature radicale et contagieuse des bouleversements observés est fortement similaire à celle des révolutions qui mirent fin au communisme en Europe. Il en va de même s’agissant du débat sur la contribution relative des facteurs économiques et politiques à l’explosion finale de manifestations populaires.

Bien que la soif de dignité, de liberté d’expression, et de participation démocratique réelle ait constitué la force motrice des révolutions arabes, les mécontentements économiques ont joué un rôle primordial ; et la dimension économique contribuera à être déterminante dans la manière dont se déroule la transition dans le monde arabe. Il convient ici de garder à l’esprit trois objectifs fondamentaux à long terme.

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