Doce tecnologías que cambiarán el mundo

SAN FRANCISCO – En la historia sobran ejemplos de tecnologías que en su momento parecieron revolucionarias y después dejaron de usarse. Ya bastante irritante es para los consumidores descubrir que, por decir algo, uno se compró un estéreo cuadrafónico para nada. Pero para una empresa, apostar a una tecnología errada puede ser desastroso.

Por ejemplo, a fines de los noventa, se creía que los portales interempresariales B2B serían La Superaplicación (con mayúsculas) del ámbito comercial, lo que llevó a que se crearan más de 1.500 de esos portales. Pero después, la mayoría de ellos desapareció, llevándose consigo miles de millones de dólares invertidos.

Casi cualquier tecnología nueva despierta al nacer expectativas exageradas. Para ayudar a separar el trigo de la paja, el McKinsey Global Institute examinó más de cien tecnologías que están evolucionando rápidamente y logró identificar doce que casi seguramente cambiarán el statu quo en los años venideros. El MGI estima que en 2025, el impacto económico anual colectivo de eso que llaman la “docena disruptiva” (un conjunto de tecnologías que atraviesa campos tan diversos como la informática, la industria mecánica y automotriz, la energía, la biociencia y la ciencia de los materiales) alcanzará entre 14 y 33 billones de dólares. Y es probable que buena parte del valor creado (en muchos casos, la gran mayoría) vaya a parar a los consumidores.

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