Подрывная дюжина

САН-ФРАНЦИСКО – История засорена технологиями, которые когда-то были названы последним словом техники. Однако, когда эти технологии выпускаются, потребители могут быть разочарованы; скажем, квадрофоническое стерео, которое люди покупали, было пустой тратой денег. Но когда компании делают ставки на неправильные технологии, для них последствия могут быть разрушительными.

В конце 1990-х, например, вера в то, что обмены B2B станут «захватчиком рынка» или новаторским продуктом для торговли, привела к формированию более 1500 таких предприятий. С тех пор большинство из них завершило свою деятельность, похоронив миллиарды долларов, которые были в них вложены.

Для того чтобы помочь пробиться сквозь обман, который окружает почти все новые технологии, Всемирный Институт Маккинси (MGI) исследовал более 100 быстро развивающихся технологий и идентифицировал 12, которые почти наверняка нарушат статус-кво в ближайшие годы. По оценкам MGI, общий годовой экономический эффект этой «подрывной дюжины», которая охватывает информационную технологию, механические устройства и транспортные средства, энергию, биологию и материалы – достигнет 14-33 триллионов долларов к 2025 году. И значительная доля этой выгоды – зачастую ее существенное большинство – вероятно, достанется потребителям.

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