Die zwölf Technologien der Zukunft

SAN FRANCISCO – In der Geschichte gibt es unzählige Beispiele für Technologien, die irgendwann einmal als die nächste große Sache gepriesen wurden. Für Verbraucher kann es ärgerlich sein, wenn sie feststellen, dass sich ihre Investition in ein, sagen wir mal, Quadrofonie-Soundsystem als Geldverschwendung erweist. Wenn Unternehmen auf die falschen Technologien setzen, können die Konsequenzen allerdings verheerend sein.

Ende der 1990er-Jahre etwa hat die Überzeugung, dass sich B2B-Exchanges als die „Killerapplikation“ für den Handel erweisen würden dazu geführt, dass über 1.500 dieser Handelsplattformen aufgebaut wurden. Die meisten sind inzwischen verschwunden und mit ihnen Investitionen in Milliardenhöhe.

Um das Wesentliche aus dem Wirbel herauszufiltern, der das Aufkommen fast aller neuen Technologien begleitet, hat das McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) über 100 Technologien untersucht, die sich rasch entwickeln und 12 ausfindig gemacht, die in den nächsten Jahren aller Voraussicht nach am Status quo rütteln werden. Schätzungen des MGI zufolge wird der jährliche wirtschaftliche Einfluss dieses „durchschlagenden Dutzends“ – in den Bereichen Informationstechnologie, Maschinen und Fahrzeuge, Energie, Biowissenschaft und Werkstoffe – bis zum Jahr 2025 zusammengenommen bei 14-33 Billionen US-Dollar liegen. Dieser Wert dürfte überwiegend – in vielen Fällen zum Großteil – Verbrauchern zugutekommen.

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