Tucet převratných technologií

SAN FRANCISCO – Dějiny jsou plné technologií, které byly ve své době opěvovány jako další převratná novinka. Zákazníky to může obtěžovat, když si například uvědomí, že kvadrofonní hudební soustava, kterou si koupili, byla vyhozenými penězi. Když však na nesprávnou technologii vsadí firmy, může to pro ně mít zničující následky.

Například víra, že burzy B2B se stanou příští „převratnou aplikací“ v oblasti obchodu, vedla k tomu, že se jich koncem 90. let vyrojilo více než 1500. Většina jich od té doby zanikla a spolu s nimi zanikly i investice v hodnotě několika miliard dolarů.

Ve snaze proniknout pod povrch humbuku, který obklopuje nástup téměř všech nových technologií, prozkoumala společnost McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) více než sto rychle se vyvíjejících technologií a identifikovala mezi nimi dvanáct takových, které v příštích letech téměř jistě povedou k převratné změně současného stavu. MGI odhaduje, že kombinovaný roční hospodářský dopad tohoto „tuctu převratníků“ – do něhož patří objevy z oblasti informačních technologií, strojírenství, automobilového průmyslu, energetiky, biověd a materiálového inženýrství – dosáhne do roku 2025 hodnoty 14-33 bilionů dolarů. Velká část této hodnoty – v mnoha případech výrazná většina – pravděpodobně připadne spotřebitelům.

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