Dean Rohrer

El futuro económico de la revolución de Egipto

CAMBRIDGE – En Egipto, la pregunta del día es si el país logrará construir un sistema político democrático abierto o recaerá en alguna forma –nueva o vieja- de autocracia. Sin embargo, hay otra pregunta igual de importante –para todos los egipcios, y para otros países en desarrollo (y para los especialistas en desarrollo) – el impacto de su revolución.

En los últimos veinticinco años, un tema principal en la agenda de las organizaciones internacionales de desarrollo, como el Fondo Monetario Internacional y el Banco Mundial, ha sido el fortalecimiento de los mercados financieros de las naciones en desarrollo. Los mercados financieros fuertes pueden movilizar los ahorros hacia donde mejor puedan estimular el crecimiento económico. Además, esa capacidad se ha considerado como uno de los varios prerrequisitos clave para el desarrollo económico. Propiciar un mejor funcionamiento de las finanzas debería fomentar significativamente el desarrollo.

Los historiadores económicos señalan que las revoluciones financieras sentaron las bases para un desarrollo económico sólido en Inglaterra (en los siglos XVII y XVIII después de la Gloriosa Revolución), en los Estados Unidos (después de que Alexander Hamilton creara estructuras financieras cruciales en el curso de los años 1790 en un país principalmente agrícola), y en Japón (después de la restauración Meiji).

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