Dean Rohrer

Die ökonomische Zukunft der Ägyptischen Revolution

CAMBRIDGE – Für Ägypten lautet die Frage des Tages, ob das Land ein offenes, demokratisches System errichten wird oder wieder in eine Form der Autokratie – neu oder alt – verfallen wird. Eine ebenso wichtige Frage – vor allem für die Ägypter, aber auch für andere Entwicklungsländer (und für Entwicklungsexperten) – ist die nach den ökonomischen Auswirkungen der Revolution.

Im letzten Vierteljahrhundert war ein wichtiger Punkt auf der Tagesordnung von internationalen Entwicklungsorganisationen, wie dem Internationalen Währungsfonds und der Weltbank, die Finanzmärkte von Entwicklungsländern zu unterstützen. Stärkere Finanzmärkte können die Ersparnisse dahin lenken, wo sie das Wirtschaftswachstum am meisten ankurbeln. Und diese Fähigkeit wurde als eine der Schlüsselvoraussetzungen für die Wirtschaftsentwicklung angesehen. Wenn die Finanzmärkte funktionieren, sollte das die Wirtschaftsentwicklung bedeutsam steigern.

Wirtschaftshistoriker weisen darauf hin, dass Finanzrevolutionen in verschiedenen Ländern die Bedingungen für eine starke Wirtschaftsentwicklung schufen, z. B. in England (im siebzehnten und achtzehnten Jahrhundert, nach der Glorious Revolution), in den Vereinigten Staaten (nachdem Alexander Hamilton in den 1790er Jahren in einem primär landwirtschaftlichen Land bedeutsame Finanzstrukturen aufbaute) und in Japan (nach der Meiji-Restauration).

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