Dean Rohrer

La révolution et l'avenir économique de l'Egypte

CAMBRIDGE –L'Egypte va-t-elle parvenir à construire un système politique démocratique et ouvert ou va-t-elle retomber dans une forme d'autocratie ? Derrière cette question s'en pose une autre tout aussi importante, d'abord pour les Egyptiens, mais aussi pour les autres pays en développement (ainsi que pour les experts du développement), celle des conséquences économiques de la révolution.

Depuis 25 ans, les organisations internationales spécialisées telles que le FMI et la Banque mondiale se sont fixées entre autre comme priorité de favoriser l'expansion des marchés financiers des pays en développement. Des marchés financiers forts attirent l'épargne là où elle est le plus susceptible de stimuler la croissance économique. On considère cette capacité comme l'une des conditions clés nécessaires au développement. Remettre en marche la finance devrait permettre de relancer la machine économique.

Les historiens de l'économie soulignent que les révolutions financières ont servi de prélude à des périodes de prospérité économique en Angleterre (au 17° et au 18° siècle après la Révolution glorieuse, aux USA (après la mise en place des principales structures financières par Alexandre Hamilton au cours des années 1790 dans un pays qui était avant tout agricole) et au Japon (après la révolution Meiji).

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