Os custos económicos do medo

BERKELEY - O índice das acções da S&P gera atualmente um retorno real de 7% (ajustado pela inflação). Em contraste, a taxa de juro efectiva anual sobre as obrigações a cinco anos Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) é de -1,02%. Sim, há um sinal de “menos” antes: se comprar as TIPS a cinco anos, o Tesouro dos EUA pagar-lhe-á os juros à taxa de inflação do consumidor, menos 1,02% por ano, nos próximos cinco anos. Mesmo a taxa de juro efectiva anual sobre as TIPS a 30 anos é de apenas 0,63% - e você corre um grande risco de o seu valor cair em algum momento durante a próxima geração, o que implica uma grande perda caso precise de as vender antes da data do seu vencimento.

Então, imagine que investe 10 mil dólares no índice S&P. Este ano, a sua parte nos lucros obtidos por essas empresas será de 700 dólares. Agora, imagine que, desse total, as empresas pagam 250 dólares em dividendos (os quais você reinveste para comprar mais acções) e retém 450 dólares em lucros para reinvestir nos seus negócios. Se os gestores das empresas fizerem o seu trabalho, esse reinvestimento aumentará o valor das suas acções para 10.450 dólares. Acrescente a isso os 250 dólares das novas acções e no próximo ano o portefólio valerá 10.700 dólares - mais, se as valorizações nos mercados accionistas subirem e menos, se caírem.

Na verdade, em relação a qualquer período passado, longo o suficiente para que ondas de optimismo e de pessimismo se anulassem mutuamente, os ganhos de rendimento médio no índice S&P têm sido um bom guia para o retorno da carteira. Então, se investir 10 mil dólares na S&P para os próximos cinco anos, pode razoavelmente esperar (com elevados riscos ascendentes e descendentes) fazer cerca de 7% ao ano, ficando com um lucro composto, ajustado pela inflação de 4.191 dólares. Se investir 10 mil dólares nas TIPS a cinco anos, pode esperar com confiança uma perda de cinco anos de 510 dólares.

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