Die wirtschaftlichen Folgen der arabischen Revolution

NEW YORK – Der politische Aufruhr im Nahen Osten hat gewichtige wirtschaftliche und finanzielle Auswirkungen, insbesondere da er das Risiko der Stagflation erhöht, einer tödlichen Kombination aus schwächelndem Wachstum und steil ansteigender Inflation. Sollte es tatsächlich zur Stagflation kommen, besteht das ernstzunehmende Risiko einer doppelten Rezession, und das, nachdem die Weltwirtschaft gerade erst ihre schlimmste Krise seit Jahrzehnten hinter sich gebracht hat.

Schwere Unruhen im Nahen Osten waren historisch eine Quelle für Ölpreisspitzen, die wiederum drei der letzten fünf globalen Rezessionen ausgelöst haben. Der Jom-Kippur-Krieg 1973 verursachte eine steile Erhöhung der Ölpreise, die zur globalen Stagflation von 1974 bis 1975 führte. Die Iranische Revolution 1979 führte zu einem ähnlichen stagflationären Anstieg der Ölpreise, der in der Rezession von 1980 bis 1981 gipfelte. Auch Iraks Invasion in Kuwait im August 1990 führte zu einer Erhöhung der Ölpreise, und zwar zu einer Zeit, in der die US-Bankenkrise Amerika bereits in die Rezession kippen ließ.

Die Ölpreise spielten auch bei der jüngsten, durch die Finanzmärkte verursachten globalen Rezession eine Rolle. Bis zum Sommer 2008, kurz vor dem Zusammenbruch von Lehman Brothers, hatten sich die Ölpreise im Laufe der vorhergehenden 12 Monate verdoppelt und einen Spitzenpreis von 148 USD pro Barrel erreicht – womit sie einer bereits schwachen und strauchelnden globalen Wirtschaft, die gegen Finanzschocks ankämpfte, den Gnadenstoß versetzten.

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