Ekonomické důsledky arabské revolty

NEW YORK – Politická vřava na Středním východě má silné ekonomické a finanční následky, zejména proto, že zvyšuje riziko stagflace, smrtící kombinace zpomalujícího růstu a prudce rostoucí inflace. Vždyť kdyby stagflace skutečně vznikla, globální ekonomice, která se sotva vzpamatovala z nejhorší krize za několik desetiletí, by hrozilo vážné riziko recese s dvojitým propadem.

Výrazný neklid na Středním východě je historicky původcem prudkých vzestupů cen ropy, jež zapříčinily tři z pěti posledních globálních recesí. V roce 1973 vyvolala strmé zvýšení cen ropy Jomkippurská válka a to vedlo ke globální stagflaci let 1974-1975. Íránská revoluce roku 1979 vedla k podobnému stagflačnímu vzestupu cen ropy, který kulminoval během recese v letech 1980-1981. Konečně irácká invaze do Kuvajtu v srpnu 1990 vyústila v ostré zvýšení cen ropy v době, kdy už Ameriku do recese postrkovala tamní bankovní krize.

Ceny ropy hrály jistou úlohu i během nedávné globální recese vycházející z finančnictví. V průběhu 12 měsíců do léta roku 2008, těsně před krachem Lehman Brothers, se ceny ropy zdvojnásobily a dosáhly maxima ve výši 148 dolarů za barel – čímž už beztak churavé a strádající globální ekonomice zmítané finančními šoky zasadily ránu z milosti.

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