阿拉伯革命的经济后果

纽约——

中东政治动乱会造成重大经济和金融后果,特别是增加了滞涨的风险,即增长减慢和通胀飙升同时发生的致命情形。事实上,如果滞涨真的发生,那么我们就有很大的风险面临全球经济的二次探底——几十年来即使是在最严重的危机中都不太发生的情景。

中东地区的严重动荡在历史上一直是油价暴涨之源,而过去五次全球衰退又有三次是由油价暴涨引发的。1973年的赎罪日战争(Yom Kippur War)引起了石油价格暴涨,导致全球经济在1974~1975年陷入滞涨。1979年的伊朗革命也引发了类似的滞涨性油价暴涨,最终导致1980~1981年的衰退。1990年,伊拉克入侵科威特,再次引发油价暴涨,当时,美国经济由于银行业危机已经进入了衰退。

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