Margaret Scott

Die wirtschaftlichen Folgen der Regierung Silvio Berlusconi

MAILAND – Silvio Berlusconi hat das Misstrauensvotum überstanden, aber seine Regierung ist praktisch tot. Man kann ein Land nicht mit einer so knappen Mehrheit regieren. Nicht lange jedenfalls.  

Die einzige wichtige Entscheidung, die Berlusconis vierte Regierung jemals traf, war die Entscheidung, nichts zu entscheiden. Vor zwei Jahren, als die Finanzkrise die Welt erschütterte, entschied sich Berlusconi gegen politische Interventionen, um der Großen Rezession entgegenzuwirken. Dies trug zum stärksten Absturz der Produktion in der Nachkriegsgeschichte Italiens bei, die sich in einem kumulativen Rückgang von 6,5 Prozent des BIP äußerte. Innerhalb der G-20 wies nur noch Japan schlechtere Werte auf.  

Bemerkenswerterweise war der Rückgang der Produktion in Italien doppelt so stark wie in Frankreich, einem weiteren großen OECD-Land, das sich ebenso wenig wie Italien den grundlegenden Ursachen der Krise stellte: Einer Boom-Bust-Abfolge im Immobilienbereich und einer ernsthaften Bankenkrise. Das Paradoxon besteht darin, dass die Untätigkeit der Regierung Berlusconi eine beträchtliche Verschlechterung der Staatsschulden verhinderte. Im Licht der aktuellen Krise in der Eurozone sind die Vorteile einer Politik der Untätigkeit leicht zu erkennen. Italiens heutige Lage könnte viel schlimmer sein als sie tatsächlich ist.

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