水风险上升

华盛顿—近来,关于水的新闻层出不穷。今年夏天,北印度经历了80年来最猛烈的季风,造成800多人死亡,10万人流离失所。与此同时,大雨让易北河和多瑙河河水暴涨,中欧面临几十年来最大的洪水。在美国,几乎一般的国土饱受旱灾困扰,而东北部降雨量创下了历史记录,南部农业收成暴降,而科罗拉多一片汪洋。

企业开始意识到日渐增加的水可能对经营和利润带来的风险——有的是太多,有的是太少。在本年度的达沃斯世界经济论坛上,专家将水风险列为21世纪企业面临的四大风险之一。类似地,据碳披露项目(Carbon Disclosure Project )的调查,53%的公司表示水风险已经在起作用,带来了资产损失、价格升高、水质下降、业务停顿和供应链破坏。

代价正在越来越大。德银证券测算,在影响了美国下48州的近三分之二面积的最近的旱灾中,GDP增长将因此减少约1个百分点。气候变化、人口增加和其他因素正在推高风险。全球GDP的两成产生于水稀缺地区。根据国际粮食政策研究所(IFPRI)的数据,如果没有更加可持续的水管理,这一比例将在2050年升高到45%,让世界经济产出的很大一部分置于危险之中。

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