Jennifer Kohnke

¿La inmersión de los mercados emergentes?

CAMBRIDGE – El crecimiento económico disminuye significativamente en muchos países importantes con ingresos medios y los precios de los activos caen bruscamente en todas partes, ¿nos ha alcanzado ya la inevitable «crisis del eco» en los mercados emergentes? Después de años de sólidos –y, a veces, fuertes– aumentos del producto desde la crisis financiera de 2008, el efecto combinado de la desaceleración del crecimiento de largo plazo en China y un posible final a las políticas monetarias de dinero ultrafácil en los países avanzados está dejando al descubierto significativas fragilidades.

Que shocks relativamente moderados hayan causado un trauma tan profundo en los mercados emergentes nos lleva a preguntarnos qué problemas dispararía un cambio más dramático. ¿Tienen capacidad de reacción los países emergentes?, ¿qué tipo de políticas generaría una nueva ronda de préstamos del Fondo Monetario Internacional? ¿Aprendió finalmente el FMI de la crisis de la zona del euro que los excesos de deuda pública y privada son impedimentos significativos al crecimiento y que debería enfatizar mucho más las quitas y reestructuraciones de deudas que en el pasado?

El mercado ha sido especialmente brutal con países que necesitan financiar continuos y significativos déficits de cuenta corriente, como Brasil, India, Sudáfrica e Indonesia. Afortunadamente, una combinación de tasas de cambio flexibles, sólidas reservas internacionales, mejores regímenes monetarios y un alejamiento de la deuda en moneda extranjera proporcionan un cierto grado de protección.

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