Jennifer Kohnke

I mercati emergenti stanno affondando?

CAMBRIDGE – Il forte rallentamento della crescita economica in molti dei maggiori paesi a medio reddito, così come il crollo generalizzato dei prezzi delle attività finanziarie, sta forse a indicare che l'inevitabile eco della crisi nei mercati emergenti è giunta fino a noi? Dopo anni – dalla crisi finanziaria del 2008 – di solidi e talvolta ingenti profitti ricavati dalla produzione, l'effetto combinato del rallentamento della crescita a lungo termine in Cina e del potenziale stop alle politiche monetarie ultra espansive nei paesi avanzati sta portando alla luce delle grandi fragilità.

Il fatto che shock tutto sommato moderati abbiano traumatizzato i mercati emergenti in modo così profondo porta a domandarsi cosa potrebbe succedere se il cambiamento fosse più drastico. I paesi emergenti hanno davvero la capacità di reagire, e che tipo di politiche deriverebbero da una nuova tornata di finanziamenti da parte del Fondo monetario internazionale? La crisi dell’eurozona ha insegnato, una volta per tutte, al FMI che gli eccessi di debito pubblico e privato sono un grave ostacolo alla crescita, e che si dovrebbe porre più enfasi sulla svalutazione e ristrutturazione del debito rispetto al passato?

Il mercato è stato particolarmente brutale verso i paesi costretti a finanziare ingenti deficit delle partite correnti, come il Brasile, l'India, il Sudafrica e l’Indonesia. Fortunatamente, la combinazione tra tassi di cambio flessibili, forti riserve internazionali, regimi monetari migliori e un allontanamento dal debito in valuta estera, offre una certa protezione.

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