Jennifer Kohnke

Les marchés émergents sont-ils en train de plonger ?

CAMBRIDGE – Alors que la croissance économique ralentit de manière significative dans la plupart des grands pays à revenu intermédiaire et que l’ensemble des prix des actifs enregistrent de fortes baisses, est-ce que l’inévitable « crise écho » dans les marchés émergents est déjà en place ? Après des années de gains de production solides – et parfois élevés – depuis la crise financière de 2008, l'effet combiné du ralentissement de la croissance de long terme en Chine et de la fin potentielle des politiques monétaires ultra-accommodantes dans les pays avancés a mis en évidence des vulnérabilités importantes.

Le fait que des chocs relativement modérés aient causé un traumatisme aussi profond dans les marchés émergents permet de se demander quels problèmes pourrait bien déclencher un changement plus important. Les pays émergents ont-ils la capacité de réagir, et quel type de politiques une nouvelle série de prêts par le Fonds monétaire international pourrait-elle apporter ? La crise de la zone euro a-t-elle finalement appris au FMI que des surendettements public et privé représentent d'importants obstacles à la croissance et qu'il devrait insister beaucoup plus sur les annulations et restructurations de dette que ce qu’il n’a fait dans le passé?

Le marché a été particulièrement brutal envers les pays qui ont actuellement besoin de financer d'importants déficits courants, comme le Brésil, l'Inde, l'Afrique du Sud et l’Indonésie. Heureusement, la combinaison des taux de change flexibles, des solides réserves internationales, de meilleurs régimes monétaires et d’une diminution de la part de la dette en devises fournit une certaine protection.

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