Jennifer Kohnke

新兴市场在下沉吗?

美国剑桥—随着中等收入国家经济增长大幅放缓和资产价格全面大幅下跌,不可避免的新兴市场“回波危机”真的已经到来了吗?2008年金融危机以来,在经历了多年的稳健——有时甚至是强劲——的产出增长后,在中国长期增长减速和发达国家极宽松货币政策可能告一段落的共同作用下,新兴市场暴露了极大地脆弱性。

相对温和的冲击给新兴市场造成了如此深远的伤害,这一事实让人担忧,更剧烈的变化会造成怎样的问题。新兴国家有能力应对吗?IMF会给出怎样的新一轮贷款政策?欧元区最终教会了IMF什么?是公共和私人债务的积累有害于增长、与过去相比,它应该极大地提高对债务减记和重组的强调吗?

市场对巴西、印度、南非和印尼等需要为经常项目赤字大量融资的国家毫不留情。幸运的是,灵活的汇率、强大的国际储备、更好的货币机制和不再依靠外币债务提供了一些保护措施。

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