El camino que el Banco Central Europeo no ha tomado

Está claro ahora que el Banco Central Europeo (BCE) considera que los tasas de interés más altos son la respuesta adecuada a los crecientes precios del petróleo. Como resultado, el BCE se arriesga a acorralarse a sí mismo, puesto que la lógica detrás del incremento de las tasas de interés de esta semana implica que vendrán más incrementos -una serie de errores políticos que serán muy costosos para las economías de la eurozona.

A pesar de los argumentos en contrario, ningún banco central, incluyendo el BCE puede centrarse solamente en la inflación e ignorar lo que sucede con la actividad económica. Supongamos por el momento que la estabilidad de los precios se logra a costa de una tasa de desempleo del 30%. Ciertamente, nadie querría eso.

Los defensores del BCE dirían que ese resultado es meramente hipotético -e irrelevante- porque no hay conflicto entre estabilizar la inflación y mantener un nivel apropiado de actividad económica. De acuerdo con este punto de vista, la estabilidad de los precios reduce la incertidumbre y esto permite a las empresas y a los individuos tomar las decisones correctas, por lo que es buena y no mala para la actividad económica.

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