Cesta, již ECB minula

Dnes už je jasné, že Evropská centrální banka za správnou odpověď na rostoucí ceny ropy považuje vyšší úrokové sazby. ECB tudíž riskuje, že se nechá zahnat do rohu, neboť logika za zvýšením úrokových sazeb, k němuž došlo v tomto týdnu, znamená, že přijdou další navýšení – série chyb v politice banky, jež přijde ekonomiky eurozóny draho.

Navzdory tvrzením o opaku se žádná centrální banka, ECB nevyjímaje, nemůže zaměřit pouze na inflaci a ignorovat, co se děje s ekonomickou aktivitou. Předpokládejme pro účely tohoto argumentu, že stabilizace cen by bylo možné dosáhnout za cenu 30% míry nezaměstnanosti. To jistě nikdo nechce.

Zastánci ECB by řekli, že takový výsledek je ryze hypotetický a irelevantní, neboť mezi stabilizací inflace a udržením patřičné úrovně ekonomické aktivity není žádný rozpor. Stabilita cen podle tohoto názoru snižuje nejistotu, takže firmám i jedincům umožňuje správně se rozhodovat, a proto není pro ekonomickou aktivitu špatná, nýbrž dobrá.

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