El BCE acelera el paso

El boyante crecimiento económico de los EU ha dado al Banco Central Europeo, hasta ahora, el entorno global necesario para aumentar las tasas de interés a partir de niveles muy bajos a un ritmo lento y estable que limita la fricción política con los líderes de la eurozona pero que es efectivo.

Eso está a punto de cambiar. Las últimas evidencias provenientes de los EU indican que la economía muestra una abrupta tendencia a la baja que podría ponerse de manifiesto en los próximos meses. A menos que el BCE acelere el ritmo de los aumentos de las tasas de interés ahora, la meta de la neutralidad de esas tasas podría no ser políticamente posible, lo que pondría en riesgo el logro de los objetivos de estabilidad de precios del banco.

El banco debe actuar con mayor celeridad no porque haya mayores perspectivas de crecimiento en el futuro, sino por la razón contraria: el temor de que el crecimiento europeo se desacelere, lo que limitaría la posibilidad de aumentos en el futuro. En efecto, antes de la súbita desaceleración de la economía de los EU, un número creciente de miembros del Consejo de Administración del BCE ya había llegado a la conclusión de que era necesario acelerar el ritmo de los aumentos de las tasas de interés para poder alcanzar el objetivo de la neutralidad monetaria.

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