Die EZB macht Tempo

Das beschwingte US-Wirtschaftswachstum hat der Europäischen Zentralbank bisher den erforderlichen globalen Hintergrund geliefert, um die Zinssätze von einem sehr niedrigen Niveau in einem langsamen und beständigen Tempo zu erhöhen, das die politischen Spannungen mit den politischen Machthabern der Eurozone in Grenzen hält und dennoch seinen Zweck erfüllt.

Das wird sich bald ändern. Die neuesten Einzelberichte aus den USA deuten darauf hin, dass die Wirtschaft steil nach unten abknicken wird, was sich in den kommenden Monaten zeigen soll. Wenn die EZB das Tempo, mit der sie die Zinssätze erhöht, jetzt nicht steigert, ist das Ziel der Zinssatzneutralität politisch unter Umständen nicht machbar, wodurch das Erreichen der Preisstabilitätsziele der Bank in Gefahr geriete.

Die EZB sollte bereitwilliger handeln, nicht etwa, weil es derzeit gute Aussichten für zukünftiges Wachstum gäbe, sondern aus dem entgegengesetzten Grund: aus Angst, dass sich das europäische Wachstum verlangsamt und damit die Möglichkeit für zukünftige Zinssatzerhöhungen einschränkt. Tatsächlich waren bereits vor der plötzlichen Talfahrt der US-Wirtschaft immer mehr Mitglieder des EZB-Rates zu dem Schluss gekommen, dass ein schnelleres Tempo bei den Zinssatzerhöhungen notwendig ist, wenn das Ziel der Geldneutralität erreicht werden soll.

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