不受欢迎的美元本位

Jan 23, 2013 Ronald McKinnon

帕罗奥图—二战结束以来，美元一直是全球贸易的记账货币、银行间国际收支的清算媒介，也是最主要的正式外汇储备货币。这一安排经常受到批判，但存在可行的替代方案吗？

二战结束后，欧洲陷入了萧条和通胀，其问题在于缺少外汇储备，而这意味着贸易存在巨大的机会成本。为了在不要求每笔交易都实现资金收付的情况下促进贸易，欧洲经济合作组织在1950年成立了欧洲支付同盟（EPU）。EPU受美元计价信用支持，其15个西欧成员国建立了精确的美元汇率平价，以此作为锚定国内价格水平和消除一切欧洲内部贸易货币障碍的基础。这便是获得巨大成功的欧洲复兴计划（即马歇尔计划，美国帮助欧洲国家重振经济）的基石。

如今，除了少数东亚国家之外，大部分发展中国家仍然选择将本国宏观经济安排之锚设定为（至少是间歇性地）稳定对美元汇率。

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Parrain Boursorama Jan 12, 2014

And while the initial Kibbutz movement lost its force and vigor as the country became westernized, the safe and prosperous future of Israel necessitates the return to a similar close, family-like national unity, mutual cooperation and understanding.
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Chee-Heong Quah Feb 25, 2013

Now I understand.

In sum, government intervention disrupts the mechanics of the natural price mechanism in the interbank market. The act of Federal Reserves bidding up prices of bills and bonds, pushed down the short-term interest rates which do not represent the natural price of capital that would have been without Fed's intervention.

Since the Fed set the minimum price, banks and lenders find it not profitable to lend at the new low price. But what about the "black market"? Can market prices prevail in the "black market"?
- Chee-Heong Quah Feb 25, 2013
  
  Correction. Maximum price I mean.
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John Monroe Feb 19, 2013

This argument loses all credibility the second it hones in on entitlement spending, rather than spending, as a root problem. How is it defense spending eludes Dr. Mckinnon's radar? -- one detects ideology intruding on thought. At least there are obvious returns for not permitting a flood of money into luxury spending (healthcare) to beggar the lower and middle classes -- at least, if one concedes that nothing will be done to rein in costs. There may be returns on defense spending but no one seems eager to mention them in public.

Incidentally, it is not necessary to conclude from "China's exchange rate policy is not to blame for our trade deficit" that China's currency is therefore not undervalued. It is undervalued. It has been for the last fifteen years, at least. And yet it is not responsible for our trade deficit.
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Carol Maczinsky Jan 31, 2013

I think sinophilism and sinophobia are equally wrong. We know that the Chinese economy is on shaky grounds.
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Mark Pitts Jan 25, 2013

The author is quite correct in pointing out that excessively low rates engineered by the Fed was a significant reason for the housing bubble. Then, as now, low rates lead investors into riskier assets, and lead even low-income borrows to believe they can come out ahead by betting on housing.
A recent study from the Erasmus Institute also shows how excessive world saving fed into the mix.
A greedy population that didn’t want to miss out on a “sure thing” is also to blame. Shiller explains this effect in housing and the stock market in his excellent book.
Of course, many unthinking people want to blame the banks. However, they have yet to explain how banks could have anticipated the problem when international agencies such as the IMF could not, and the even Fed mere days before the crisis saw no problem in housing.
- Jose araujo Jan 28, 2013
  
  How many time do the Austrians have to be proven wrong for people to stop using the same arguments.
  
  Look at the situation right now, if low interest rates had anything to do with housing bubles wouldn't we be living in this situations right now?
  
  Deregulation and the spread of securization has much more to do with the housing bubbles then low interest rates. The problem wasn't the cost of risk, the problem was the wrong perception and valuation of the risk
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Jose araujo Jan 24, 2013

Wouldn't it be much easier if you inverted the causal nexus.

Its the over appreciation of a currency that causes fiscal deficits and not the opposite. We all know it, its empirical verifiable and it makes sense.

We actually have evidence in many countries that its the fixed exchange rates that require a country to have huge fiscal deficits.
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Jose araujo Jan 24, 2013

Is McKinnon proposing a new economic theory, or has he just gone mad?

"Fed first cut interest rates to 1%, triggering the US housing bubble,..." so it was the Fed that triggered the house bubble!!!!

"...dollar reserves in emerging markets have increased six-fold, reaching $7 trillion by 2011" now cutting interest rates leads to capital inflow, another amazing statement

"..trade deficits are primarily the result of insufficient, mainly government, saving – not a misaligned exchange rate,..." trade deficits are now the consequence of public deficits!!!! Amazing theory..

"Large US budget deficits during Ronald Reagan’s presidency generated the famous twin fiscal and trade deficits of the 1980’s. This, not an undervalued yen, caused the bilateral deficit with Japan to widen in the 1980’s and 1990’s." Clearly that was what caused the deficits..

"The claim that exchange-rate appreciation will reduce a country’s trade surplus is false, because, in globally integrated economies, domestic investment falls when the exchange rate appreciates." Yes, yes, I start to understand now, up is down and down is up for Professor McKinnon

"Indeed, America’s trade deficit in manufactures is roughly equal to its current-account deficit (the amount by which domestic investment exceeds domestic saving)" last time I checked that is the definition of the capital account, and yes capital account is the mirror of the current account, but not for Mckinnon...

"Can large US fiscal deficits and near-zero interest rates be justified because they help to revive domestic economic growth and job creation? Five years after the credit crunch of 2007-2008, it seems that they cannot" Yes yes, for sure reducing spending and increasing interest rates is the answer to our problems...

This must be an article from the wrong McKinnon, we must be in the presence of the GREAT Magician McKinnon, that can solve the competitive problems of the economy with his magic wand, generating trade surplus while appreciating the dollar, and growing the economy while cutting the defict
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