Доллар поскользнулся на нефтяном пятне

КЕМБРИДЖ – Быстрый рост цен на нефть и резкое обесценивание доллара – два самых примечательных события прошлого года. Цена на нефть выросла на 85% за последние 12 месяцев с $65 за баррель до $120. В течение того же периода доллар упал на 15% по отношению к евро и на 12% по отношению к йене. Многим наблюдателям комбинация падающего доллара и роста цен на нефть кажется не простым совпадением.

Но какая же между ними связь? Неужели цена на нефть выросла бы меньше, если бы нефть оценивалась в евро вместо долларов? Неужели падение доллара привело к росту цены на нефть? И как рост цены на нефть повлиял на изменение доллара?

Поскольку нефтяной рынок является мировым, притом что его цены в разных местах фактически одинаковы, цена отражает как всемирный спрос на нефть, так и всемирное предложение всех нефтедобывающих стран. Основной спрос на нефть заключается в спросе на транспортное топливо, которое в меньшем объеме используется для отопления, электроэнергии и в качестве затрат в нефтехимические отрасли промышленности, например, проихзводство пластмассы. Поэтому растущий спрос на нефть со стороны всех стран, а в особенности со стороны быстро растущих стран с развивающимися рынками, таких как Китай и Индия, был и будет важной силой, толкающей мировые цены вверх. 

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