Безрадостный триумф мрачного экономиста

НЬЮ-ЙОРК – Я уже давно делал прогонозы, что обвал жилищного бума в Америке –ampnbsp; начавшегося в первые годы этого десятилетия, подкреплённого приливом ликвидности и слабостью регулирования – это всего лишь вопрос времени. Чем дольше длился бум, тем сильнее был обвал и тем крупнее (и более глобальным) оказался экономический спад.

Экономисты умеют чётко определить силы, лежащие в основе того или иного процесса, хотя они не всегда могут правильно рассчитать время. В целом, однако, развитие процесса соответствует ожиданиям. На пороге 2009г. Америка всё ещё движется по нисходящей – что имеет тяжёлые последствия для мира в целом.

Так, например, ввиду резкого падения налоговых доходов, провинциальные и местные органы управления проводят сокращение расходов. Американский экспорт будет снижаться. Как и ожидалось, потребительские расходы резко сократились. В размерах богатства произошёл огромный спад, исчисляющийся миллиардами, вызванный снижением цен на жильё и курса акций. Кроме того, большинство американцев жили не по средствам, используя свои дома, с их раздутой стоимостью, в качестве залога. Эта игра проиграна. ampnbsp;ampnbsp;ampnbsp;ampnbsp;ampnbsp;ampnbsp;

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