外交选择

丹佛—一位反对朝鲜和伊朗的俄罗斯高级外交官曾经对我说:“朝鲜半岛就像是一对旗鼓相当的邻家对头小孩。伊朗才是真正需要担心的。”

 “P5+1”(联合国安理会五大常任理事国和德国)和伊朗于4月14日在伊斯坦布尔举行、并将于5月23日在巴格达再次进行的谈判能否取得任何成果还远未可知。明智的赌徒都会把注投给失败。但不抱希望者需要明白一个关于此类谈判的基本道理(尽管这一道理有时会难以理解):它们本来就带着两个目的。

第一个目的当然是说服问题国家按另一方的要求行事。但谈判也必须证明所有能做的事情在考虑采取下一步行动前都做过了——特别是存在高度风险、令人忧心忡忡的动武决策。军事手段要求广泛的国际认可,而这一条件只有在诚信外交的环境下才能达到。

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