Politics

外交选择

May 16, 2012 Christopher R. Hill

丹佛—一位反对朝鲜和伊朗的俄罗斯高级外交官曾经对我说：“朝鲜半岛就像是一对旗鼓相当的邻家对头小孩。伊朗才是真正需要担心的。”

“P5+1”（联合国安理会五大常任理事国和德国）和伊朗于4月14日在伊斯坦布尔举行、并将于5月23日在巴格达再次进行的谈判能否取得任何成果还远未可知。明智的赌徒都会把注投给失败。但不抱希望者需要明白一个关于此类谈判的基本道理（尽管这一道理有时会难以理解）：它们本来就带着两个目的。

第一个目的当然是说服问题国家按另一方的要求行事。但谈判也必须证明所有能做的事情在考虑采取下一步行动前都做过了——特别是存在高度风险、令人忧心忡忡的动武决策。军事手段要求广泛的国际认可，而这一条件只有在诚信外交的环境下才能达到。

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Christopher R. Hill

Writing for PS since 2010
103 Commentaries

Christopher R. Hill, former US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia, was US Ambassador to Iraq, South Korea, Macedonia, and Poland, a US special envoy for Kosovo, a negotiator of the Dayton Peace Accords, and the chief US negotiator with North Korea from 2005-2009. He is Chief Adviser to the Chancellor for Global Engagement and Professor of the Practice in Diplomacy at the University of Denver, and the author of Outpost: A Diplomat at Work.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 4 Comments on this article

Ilan Bajarlia Jun 11, 2012

I agree with the author in the main point: I also think diplomacy is the best option in order to solve international conflicts.
But I think the article it is missing another very important point: besides explaining why diplomacy is better than war as an abstract, general idea, in order to decide what to do on the iranian debate, it is also important to explain what Iran has to negociate with the P5 + 1.
That is, diplomacy, economic sanctions or war are three very different ways for countries on trying to achieve their goals in international politics; there are part of a bigger foreign policy stategy.
So the key question here is asking and trying to explain why Iran is developing a nuclear bomb: it is not the same if it is for destabilizing the status quo with hegemonic aspirations, or becouse Iran feels insecure from a neorrealistic understanding of the anarchical international system in theory and of the hostility in the middle eastern reality in particular.
Only after answering this question we can analyze which is the most accurate method for stopping the iranian bomb. And yes, I think diplomacy is the best for that.
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Steven Gilbert May 24, 2012

At the risk of neither being cool nor intellectual, let's be blunt and state the obvious - we (US) are the good guys and the Iranians are the bad guys.

Iran's actions at home, in Syria, Afghanistan, Venezuela, Lebannon, Gaza, Bolivia, Bahrain, and Yemen just to name a few are well understood except by those in a state of willful denial. The solution, in principle, is simple; put their lie (peaceful research and use of nuclear energy) to the test. Provide them with fuel plates for generation of electricity and the tiny quantities of materiel with which to conduct medical research. Deny them everything else. If this strikes some as falling short of "negotiating in good faith" as it lacks the give and take of diplomacy, too bad. Remember, they're the bad guys. If you're not sure, book a stay in Even Prison. Remember, we're the good guys; they're the bad guys.
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Kevin Lim May 22, 2012

"The Israelis also see with greater clarity than many in the world the nature of the likely successor regime in Syria (hint: it will probably not be comprised exclusively of Facebook and Twitter users)."

Spot on.
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Hamid Rizvi May 17, 2012

"CommentsIran’s nuclear aspirations are a problem that, if not resolved, could lead to dangerous escalation, as countries such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the US, and Israel review their options."

Problem for whom? Israel and their paranoia. How long will the US tow the line for Israel?

So as a result of this unruly country and it's powerful AIPAC in the US the rest of the World suffers not to mention the Iranians themselves.

Get over your double standards of hoarding enough nuclear devices to destroy the World ten times over while pretending to be holier the thou!
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