La diplomacia de los ciegos

PARIS - ¿Por qué las revoluciones tan a menudo toman por sorpresa a los diplomáticos profesionales? ¿Hay algo en su ADN que les haga preferir el statu quo tanto que, las más de las veces, los cambios veloces los encuentran desprevenidos y sin saber cómo responder una vez que comienzan?

Lo que está ocurriendo hoy en el mundo árabe es una revolución que puede llegar a ser para Oriente Próximo el equivalente de lo que la Revolución Francesa fue para Europa en 1789: un cambio profundo y radical que altera por completo la situación hasta entonces dominante. No se puede decir cuántas Bastillas acabarán por caer en la región, ni a qué ritmo. La única analogía reciente es el colapso del bloque soviético, seguido por la desaparición de la Unión Soviética misma, entre 1989 y 1991.

¿Quién previó esta transformación repentina y rápida? Cuando la República Democrática Alemana estaba a punto de desaparecer, algunos altos diplomáticos franceses en Alemania seguían asegurando a su gobierno en París que la Unión Soviética nunca aceptaría la reunificación alemana, así que no había nada de qué preocuparse: la vida seguiría casi como de costumbre. El espectro de una Alemania unida no sería realidad muy pronto.

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