Diplomatie der Blinden

PARIS – Warum sehen Diplomaten so oft Revolutionen nicht kommen? Liegt es in ihrem Wesen den Status Quo so sehr zu bevorzugen, dass sie oft von schnellen Veränderungen überrascht werden und dann nicht wissen, wie sie darauf reagieren sollen?

Was heute in der arabischen Welt geschieht, ist eine Revolution, die für den Nahen Osten zu dem werden kann, was die Französische Revolution 1789 für Europa war: eine tief greifende und radikale Veränderung, die mit den vorher herrschenden Verhältnissen komplett bricht. Wie viele Bastilles in der Region letztendlich fallen werden, und wie schnell, kann niemand sagen. Die einzige zeitnahe Analogie ist der Zusammenbruch des Sowjetblocks und kurz darauf der Sowjetunion selbst zwischen 1989 und1991.

Wer hat jene plötzliche und schnelle Wende kommen sehen? Kurz bevor die DDR unterging, haben einige französische Diplomaten in Deutschland ihrer Regierung in Paris noch immer versichert, dass die Sowjetunion eine deutsche Einigung niemals akzeptieren würde, und dass es also keinen Anlass zur Sorge gäbe: das Leben würde fast wie gewohnt weitergehen. Das Gespenst eines vereinigten Deutschlands würde nicht so schnell Realität werden.

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