盲人外交

巴黎——革命为什么总是令职业外交官们出其不意? 他们的DNA中是否存在某种物质,让他们如此留恋现状,多半会因为变起突然而出其不意,而且既不能预见变化也不知道在变化发生时该如何应对。

今天在阿拉伯世界发生的革命可能演变为中东版欧洲1789年法国大革命: 一场彻底改变以前普遍情况的深远而彻底的变革。 没有人能说清楚中东地区会以何种速度垮掉多少座巴士底狱。 近期唯一的类似事件是苏联集团的崩溃,以及之后的1989-1991年苏联自身解体。

谁能预见到那场突然而快速的变革? 就在德意志民主共和国行将就木之际,某些驻德国的法国外交官仍在信誓旦旦地告诉巴黎的政府,苏联永远也不会接受德国的重新统一,因此没有什么需要担心的: 可以像以往一样继续生活。 统一德国的幽灵还不会很快成为现实。

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