Vuelta a la falsa ilusión de la devaluación

"El dólar es nuestra moneda y el problema de ustedes". Ésa fue la ocurrencia del Secretario del Tesoro de los Estados Unidos antes de que el Presidente Nixon pusiera fin al sistema de Breton Woods hace tres decenios. Lo que la franqueza de John Connolly reflejaba era la capacidad -y la disposición- de los Estados Unidos para exportar sus problemas económicos reduciendo el valor del dólar y convirtiendo en chivos expiatorios a los países opuestos a aquella estrategia. El Presidente George W. Bush parece empeñado en repetir la desafortunada política de Nixon.

Como el equipo Nixon/Connolly, la reacción del gobierno de Bush ante los inmensos déficit presupuestario y comercial ha sido la de dejar caer -y con fuerza - al dólar, al tiempo que intenta también distraer la atención de su responsabilidad señalando con un dedo acusador a China como la causa de las presiones deflacionistas y del desempleo en los Estados Unidos. Sin embargo, es probable que esa estrategia resulte tan ineficaz ahora como lo fue para Nixon, quien sólo consiguió iniciar un período de estancamiento.

La política de Bush está condenada a fracasar, porque, como en el decenio de 1970, los problemas económicos de los Estados Unidos son de origen local. No son importados y no se puede resolverlos simplemente cambiando el valor del dólar.

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