Les raisons du ralentissement de l’économie indienne

NEW DELHI – Dans un pays aussi pauvre que l’Inde, atteindre la croissance devrait être un jeu d’enfants. En la matière, il s’agit principalement pour l’État de garantir un certain nombre de biens publics : gouvernance saine, sécurité des personnes, protection de la propriété, ainsi qu’un certain nombre d’infrastructures de base telles que réseaux routiers, ponts, ports et autres centrales électriques, sans oublier accès à l’éducation et à un minimum de soins de santé. À la différence de nombreux pays pauvres présentant le même profil, l’Inde dispose d’ores et déjà d’une classe patronale forte, d’une classe moyenne importante et instruite, ainsi que de plusieurs grandes entreprises d’envergure mondiale capables de participer à l’effort de garantie de ces biens publics.

Pourquoi alors la croissance du PIB de l’Inde a-t-elle ralenti à ce point, à savoir de 10% entre 2010 et 2011 à 5% aujourd’hui ? Ce taux de croissance annuelle de presque 8% constaté pendant dix ans entre 2002 et 2012 constituerait-il une aberration ?

Personnellement, je ne le pense pas. Je considère que deux facteurs importants sont entrés en jeu au cours des deux dernières années.

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