Chris Van Es

驳美国衰亡论

发自剑桥——美国正在经历一段困难时期。2008年后的复苏已经放缓,有些观察员甚至担心欧洲爆发的金融问题将令美国和世界经济陷入二次衰退之中。

然而美国的政治却依然在预算事务上僵持不下,同时因为2012年总统大选将近,各方妥协也变得越发困难——共和党人都寄望于经济问题能助他们一臂之力,把奥巴马赶下台。在这个情况下,许多方面都预测美国都将走向衰退——尤其是在中国的映照之下。

这可不仅仅是专家学者的观点,最近由佩尤研究中心在22个国家进行的调查显示,其中15个国家的大多数民众相信中国会取代美国成为“世界第一强国”。在英国,将中国放在霸主位置的人从2009年的34%上升到如今的47%,而德国,西班牙和法国人也表现出同样的认知趋势。事实上,此次调查发现相对于拉美、日本,土耳其和东欧,我们那些最长久也最亲密的盟友们反而对美国的态度最为悲观。但实际上,即便是美国人内部也在中国是否将取代自身的问题上出现了50:50的分歧。

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