La fantasía de la deuda

WASHINGTON, DC – El segundo recorte importante en las tasas de interés de Estados Unidos en una quincena junto con un plan de estímulos económicos que unió a republicanos y demócratas demuestra que los encargados del diseño de las políticas estadounidenses están decididos a impedir una recesión que parece ser la consecuencia del aumento de las hipotecas no pagadas y la caída de los precios de las viviendas. Pero hay un problema más profundo al que no se ha prestado atención: la economía estadounidense depende de la inflación de los precios de los activos y del aumento de la deuda para alimentar el crecimiento.

En ello hay una profunda contradicción. Por un lado, la política debe fomentar burbujas de los activos para mantener el crecimiento de la economía. Por el otro, esas burbujas inevitablemente provocan crisis financieras cuando acaban por colapsarse.

Esta es una contradicción con implicaciones globales. El crecimiento de muchos países depende del gasto de los consumidores estadounidenses y de las inversiones en subcontratación para abastecer a esos consumidores. Si la economía de burbujas de Estados Unidos ya está agotada, el crecimiento global se desacelerará bruscamente. No es claro que otros países tengan la voluntad o la capacidad para desarrollar motores alternativos de crecimiento.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/qkgdk9S/es;
  1. An employee works at a chemical fiber weaving company VCG/Getty Images

    China in the Lead?

    For four decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth under a centralized, authoritarian political system, far outpacing growth in the Western liberal democracies. So, is Chinese President Xi Jinping right to double down on authoritarianism, and is the “China model” truly a viable rival to Western-style democratic capitalism?

  2. The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

    The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

  3. Donald Trump Saul Loeb/Getty Images

    The Globalization of Our Discontent

    Globalization, which was supposed to benefit developed and developing countries alike, is now reviled almost everywhere, as the political backlash in Europe and the US has shown. The challenge is to minimize the risk that the backlash will intensify, and that starts by understanding – and avoiding – past mistakes.

  4. A general view of the Corn Market in the City of Manchester Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    A Better British Story

    Despite all of the doom and gloom over the United Kingdom's impending withdrawal from the European Union, key manufacturing indicators are at their highest levels in four years, and the mood for investment may be improving. While parts of the UK are certainly weakening economically, others may finally be overcoming longstanding challenges.

  5. UK supermarket Waring Abbott/Getty Images

    The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

    With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

  6. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now