Tim Brinton

Smrtelná dluhová past

NEW YORK – Řecká finanční sága je špičkou ledovce problémů spojených s trvalou udržitelností veřejného dluhu v mnoha rozvinutých ekonomikách, nejen v takzvaných PIIGS (Portugalsko, Itálie, Irsko, Řecko a Španělsko). OECD dnes odhaduje, že poměr veřejného dluhu k HDP se v rozvinutých ekonomikách zvýší na průměrnou úroveň kolem 100% HDP. Mezinárodní měnový fond nedávno zveřejnil podobné odhady.

V pěti zemích PIIGS nejsou problémem pouze nadměrné veřejné schodky a dluhové poměry (v různém stupni a měřítku). Mají tam i problémy s vnějšími deficity, ztrátou konkurenceschopnosti a chudokrevným růstem.

Jsou to ekonomiky, které už před deseti lety ztrácely podíl na trhu ve prospěch Číny a Asie kvůli svému exportu s vysokým podílem práce a nízkou přidanou hodnotou. Po deseti letech, kdy mzdy rostly rychleji než produktivita, došlo k prudkému zvýšení jednotkových nákladů práce (a reálného směnného kurzu založeného na těchto nákladech). Výsledná ztráta konkurenceschopnosti se projevila v podobě vysokých a stále rostoucích schodků na běžném účtu a zpomaleného růstu. Posledním hřebíčkem do rakve bylo zhodnocování eura v letech 2002 až 2008.

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