Tim Brinton

债务死亡陷阱

纽约——希腊财政危机的剧情曲折跌宕,但它还只是冰山一角,水面下,许多发达经济体的公债岌岌可危,绝不仅限于所谓的“欧猪五国”(葡萄牙、意大利、爱尔兰、希腊和西班牙)。说真的,经济合作与发展组织(OECD)目前评估,发达经济体的公债GDP占比将普遍升高,平均达到100%左右。国际货币基金组织(IMF)最近的评估也得出了相似的结论。

“欧猪五国”的麻烦不仅在于公共赤字过大、负债率过高(在这方面5个国家程度有所不同),还在于对外收支赤字、竞争力丧失和增长乏力。

这几个经济体出口的主要是劳动密集型、低附加值产品,打从10年前开始,它们的国际市场份额就在不断地被中国和亚洲蚕食。过去10年中,它们的工资增长又快于生产率的提升,单位劳动成本(它是实际汇率的基础)急剧升高。竞争力随之丧失,从而体现为规模巨大且仍在扩大的经常项目赤字与低增长。棺材上的最后一颗钉子则是2002年到2008年间欧元的升值。

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