Tim Brinton

الديون ومصيدة الموت

نيويوركـ إن الملحمة المالية اليونانية ليست أكثر من قمة جبل جليدي من المشاكل المرتبطة بمدى القدرة على الاستمرار في إدارة الديون العامة في العديد من البلدان المتقدمة اقتصادياً، وليس فقط في البرتغال وإيطاليا وأيرلندا واليونان وأسبانيا (مجموعة البلدان التي يُطلق عليها اختصاراً مسمىPIIGS). وطبقاً لتقديرات منظمة التعاون الاقتصادي والتنمية فسوف ترتفع نسبة الدين إلى الناتج المحلي الإجمالي في البلدان المتقدمة اقتصادياً إلى متوسط قد يبلغ نحو 100% من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي. ومؤخراً نشر صندوق النقد الدولي تقديرات مماثلة.

وفي داخل هذه المجموعة من البلدان (PIIGS)، فإن المشاكل لا تقتصر على العجز العام المفرط ونِسَب الديون (بدرجات وقياسات مختلفة في البلدان الخمسة)، فهي تعاني أيضاً من مشاكل العجز الخارجي، وفقدان القدرة على المنافسة، وبالتالي النمو الهزيل.

وهذه البلدان كانت حتى قبل عقد كامل من الزمان تخسر حصتها في السوق لصالح الصين وآسيا، وذلك نتيجة لصادراتها ذات القيمة الإضافية المنخفضة والتي يتطلب إنتاجها عمالة مكثفة. وبعد عشرة أعوام من نمو الأجور بسرعة أكبر من نمو الإنتاجية، سجلت تكاليف وحدة العمل (وسعر الصرف الحقيقي استناداً إلى هذه التكاليف) ارتفاعاً حاداً. ولقد انعكس فقدان القدرة على المنافسة نتيجة لكل ذلك في العجز الضخم المتنامي في الحساب الجاري وتباطؤ النمو. وكانت القشة التي قسمت ظهر هذه البلدان متمثلة في ارتفاع قيمة اليورو أثناء الفترة من عام 2002 إلى عام 2008.

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